LABOR PAINS:

As investors breathlessly await the opening of the post-Labor Day trading, with the unholy combination of Congress and large investors returning to work, despite all the media hoopla about the month of September, last year's Lehman disaster and 9/11, most Sentiment Indicators do seem too bullish on the market to be bullish for the market! Usually media hype is the KOD (Kiss Of Death) to a contrarian (that's why they called it a medium!).

Stretched high are the Bullish % (stocks on a BUY signal) still over 80; Inv.Intell. Bulls, still over 50 -although the AAII ratio is 38:38. Breadth-wise, although the New Highs to Lows is huge, the McClellan charts are neutral. Mutual Fund flows turned to Outflows last week, but a new season, just as in football, begins next week.

One surprising indicator that caught this writer's attention was the high CEO/Insider selling last week, at 29:1, the highest since August 7, a week before a selloff. Looking back I noticed high readings before just about all minor selloffs (within a downtrend) at dates: 7/31/09; 5/8/09; 4/17/09 - huge in the midst of a large rally; in '08 9/18 , 6/6, and 4/18 presaged at least cessations of the upmove, as did 10/10/07 and 12/14/07. But it sure did miss the big selloff in the first past of this year!!!

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment. 9/04/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9441………9544.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 2018………2028…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 1016………1028………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …64………….58……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.3……….24.3…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………-11………….-3…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1114………1345………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….50.6………..51.5.. ………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 24.1………..19.8……..……… 54.4….......16

AAII-Bull/Bear ……38.0/38.0…..34.0/48.5…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa

MutualFunds………1.04…………0.95…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry

Index ……2415………..2421………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…81………….83………….…88…….....2

*Insider corporate

sellers. 29:1………..21:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (1.1B)……0.4B

ETF InflowsL……… (5B)………3.8B

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